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光大期货:11月22日农产品日报

2024-07-12 21:01:15栏目:评测
TAG: 贝贝 社交

豆类:

周一,CBOT上涨,受逢低买盘推动,豆油和亦上涨。美豆出口检验数据显示,美豆单周检验量位232.9万吨,处于预期100-250万吨的上沿。巴西大豆播种完成80%,低于去年同期的86%,在主要种植区中西部地区,播种基本结束。欧洲豆粕价格上涨,南美豆粕价格涨跌不一,市场一方面担忧中国需求另一方面对欧洲干旱天气担忧。国内方面,豆粕企稳,夜盘继续表现坚挺。市场继续消化大豆到港量压力增加,豆粕基差回落。下游推迟采购意愿,豆粕终端成交不旺。展望后市,豆粕1月合约面临的潜在利空题材有限,价格在关键位上有企稳表现,多单参与。操作上,月间价差继续反套。

油:

周一,BMD棕榈油上涨,因强劲的出口数据和马币走软推动。船运调查机构数据显示,11月1020日马棕油出口环比增加2.94%。SPPOMA显示,同期(11月1-20日)产量环比减少12.39%。这意味着11月马棕油产地去库可能性增大。国内方面,菜油领跌市场,棕榈油相对偏强。油脂现货价格同样回落,棕榈油滞跌。现货成交改善,这令卖方更加给予后期需求转好,挺价心态浓厚,基差多数上涨。随着大豆到港,本周大豆压榨有望大幅回升,单周200万吨左右。菜籽进口到港速度也加快,自菜籽库存恢复后,菜油库存也攀升,现货供需明显改善。期货方面,1月合约持仓量高于往年,近月矛盾激烈,建议单边震荡思路,短线参与,月间价差中豆油反套持有。

生猪:

周一,现货延续弱势,期货主力2301低开低走,日收跌2.18%,收于20900元/吨。现货价格方面,卓创数据显示,昨日中国生猪日度均价23.66元/公斤,环比跌0.56元/公斤,基准交割地河南市场生猪均价23.48元/公斤,环比跌0.37元/公斤。终端消费恢复缓慢,对价格的支撑作用较弱。屠宰企业压价,生猪价格延续回落。昨日主力合约延续增仓下行,显示目前盘面仍较弱。但经历连续三个交易日的回落,短期盘面存在小幅反弹的可能。基本面偏空预期并未发生变化,期货总体震荡偏弱趋势概率大。建议养殖企业根据自身养殖成本进行相应套期保值操作。关注终端需求以及出栏量变化对猪价的影响

周一,现货回调,期货震荡走高,主力2301合约收涨2.96%,收于4382元/500千克。卓创数据显示,昨日全国鸡蛋价格5.44元/斤,环比跌0.1元/斤。其中,宁津粉壳蛋5.35元/斤,环比跌0.1元/斤,黑山市场褐壳蛋5.1元/斤,环比跌0.2元/斤;销区中,浦西市场褐壳蛋5.67元/斤,广州市场褐壳蛋5.73元/斤,环比持平。北方主产区余货少,养殖单位大多顺势出货,惜售情绪转弱,产区偏弱震荡。销区需求较为稳定,贸易商按需采购,销区价格相对稳定。从目前基本面情况来看,供给、成本仍对蛋价形成支撑,年底蛋价走势取决于需求。受空头减仓影响,主力合约震荡反弹,期现基差得到一定修复。但考虑到今年春节较早,1月合约含有节后现货价格回调预期,基差或较往年偏高。未来重点关注需求对现货价格的影响,以及市场情绪对期货价格的影响。

周初黑海谷物出口延期的利空影响仍在国际谷物市场中蔓延。乌克兰谷物新季播种的问题又重新浮出水面,有消息反映因资金紧张,乌克兰农民在2023年的谷物种植中将减少化肥的投入使用,这将导致作物单产继续下降。针对这一情况G20成员国建立的农业信息系统(AMSI)也发出警告表示,如果乌克兰再有一年歉收,全球谷物库存减少的情况无法恢复,从而使得国际谷物价格保持高位,不利于经济稳定。目前国内玉米市场与外盘相比延续偏强表现,玉米1月合约在现货上涨的利多因素带动下重返2850元/吨,日涨幅达到1.42%,现货市场强势表现对玉米期价带来支撑。整体来看,疫情及农户销售心态对上量进度的影响仍不容忽视,现货市场强势对期货的利多影响预计还会持续一段时间,短期期价也将延续震荡偏强的表现。

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