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散户疯狂一夏,熊市反弹后美股将迎最波动的9月

2024-07-12 21:09:56栏目:评测
TAG: 贝贝 社交

机构普遍预计美股波动将会加剧

一名20岁的大学生通过出售陷入困境的零售商(Bed Bath Beyond)的股份,获得了约1.1亿美元收益,该公司股价在过去一个月的疯狂交易中飙升——近期美国散户的狂热,让人想起去年初散户大战华尔街的网红股票热潮。

在散户疯狂爆炒、长线资金抄底的推动下,美股近两个月也一举摆脱上半年的阴霾,从技术性熊市近乎切换至技术性牛市,标普500反弹幅度超15%。

但随着标普500逼近4300点的关键阻力位,获利了结盘涌出。8月末,全球央行年会将至,美联储官员不排除会重新发表鹰派言论。此外,方面表示,从季节性角度来看,9月是美股一年中最糟糕的月份。预计此次反弹后美股波动可能加剧。

散户和空头回补使美股暂时反弹

由于此前公布的美国7月CPI不及预期,引发了市场对通胀见顶的预期,9月加息75个基点(BP)的预期一度降温至50BP。不过,7月CPI的读数仍高达8.5%。

在此情形下,买气旺盛,美股先后突破3900点、4200点等关键阻力位,直逼4300点关口,“木头姐”旗下的ARKK创新ETF基金和一众多MEME网红股加速反弹。

总体来看,两大因素推动美股从6月下旬开始反弹——空头回补和散户爆炒。

摩根大通对于主经纪业务(Prime Brokerage)的研究分析显示,该机构早前强调了持续做空的风险,因为在空头回补增加的情况下,此前被做空较多的股票价格明显走高。空头回补的情况一度变得相当极端,而在这波反弹下,对冲基金并没有试图追高。这表明,从基本面上看,很少有投资者认为市场非常具有吸引力,但这并不妨碍市场在大幅杀跌后出现一轮熊市反弹。今年上半年,指数的跌幅一度逼近30%。

不过,摩根大通也表示,考虑到空头回补的极端程度以及这种动能不太可能持续很长时间,未来可能会出现更大的市场波动。事实上,过去几天空头回补动能已基本停止,这似乎可以解释美股在上周五(8月19日)的重挫——标普500自5月初以来首次站上4300点后未能维持该水平,纳斯达克100指数跌幅逼近2%,网红股纷纷回落,ARKK ETF连续四日下挫。

散户的疯狂也在过去一段时间助力美股反弹。资深全球宏观交易员袁玉玮对第一财经表示,此次反弹并非新的牛市开始,主要的原因其一是市场预期未来美联储升息幅度或低于预期,其二是美国禁止石油出口导致油价回落,压制了通胀预期。

此外,反弹还因之前的空头平仓以及多头逼空,多头逼空主要体现在ARK为主的这种低质量科技股和网红股上,类似去年散户逼空Gamestop()的事件最近又发生了一次。

上周,游戏驿站董事长兼宠物用品电商的董事长科恩(Ryan Cohen)在家居股3B上买了160万张虚值看涨期权。“实际没花多少钱。但他可能故意把消息泄露,这导致散户蜂拥入场,第二天股票就暴涨70%,然后科恩马上反手卖出了945万股现货,实际是割散户的韭菜。这种行为也让人很难相信股市目前具备长期上涨的基础,反而很可能是一个短期见头的迹象。”袁玉玮表示。他还提及,“这些股票上涨依赖机构和散户在期权上用gamma逼空,上周五这些期权都要作废,所以股票下跌的概率就会加大 。”

在这波反弹下,也有“牛散”大赚一笔。根据监管文件,南加州大学应用数学和经济学专业的杰克•弗里曼(Jake Freeman)在7月份购买了近500万股上述3B的家居股票。此前,该公司业绩惨淡,首席执行官被解职,导致股价暴跌。

弗里曼以每股不到5.5美元的价格买入。上周二(8月16日),3B家居股价飙升至每股27美元以上。随着股价飙升,弗里曼卖出了价值超过1.3亿美元的3B家居股票。弗里曼的出售时机恰到好处。3B家居股价上周四暴跌逾20%,就在上周三,科恩披露,他打算出售所持的全部股份,占该公司总股份的近12%。

备战全球央行年会和最波动9月

机构普遍预计,接下来美股波动将会加剧。

9月是历史上美股波动最大的一个月之一。摩根大通近期建议采取谨慎的短期战术立场。从季节性角度来看,9月是美股一年中最糟糕的月份,为中小盘股带来了历史上最糟糕的平均回报,在过去20多年中下跌了50%,其中MSCI欧洲小盘股指数曾三次出现两位数跌幅。

连在这轮熊市中相对乐观的也表示:“标普500在过去八周内上涨17%,提前达到我们的年终目标4300点。但过去的经验表明,如果美国经济进入熊市,即使加息停止,市场也可能下跌。”如果通胀持续超出预期,并要求美联储更激进地收紧货币政策,预计股票估值将会压缩。在这样的宏观背景下,美股上行空间似乎有限。

8月底,全球央行年会也将召开。近期美联储官员已经在释放鹰派论调,试图为过于乐观的市场情绪降温。

8月19日,旧金山联储主席戴利表示,现在就宣布战胜通胀还为时过早,美联储应在今年年底前将利率提升至略高于3%,以遏制通胀。她还驳斥了关于美联储将很快转为降息的论调。戴利在接受采访时称:“我们需要提高利率,至少达到中性水平,大约在3%左右,但可能会进入限制性区间,今年略高于3%,明年也略高于3%。”

她强调,根据历史经验,美联储政策利率达到足够的限制性水平后,应当维持在那个位置一段时间。

嘉盛集团资深分析师佩里(Joe Perry)对记者表示:“看起来美联储官员们已为8月底美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会的讲话定下基调。美联储以前都会以该会为契机,透露政策的转变。但今年看来情况有变,鲍威尔或沿用强硬态度,并继续积极加息。”

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